INSIDE THE LINES
SUNDAY, APRIL 12
Updated by 2:00 P.M. Eastern Weekdays
Updated by 9:00 A.M. Eastern Weekends
NBA
Dallas (48-31, 39-40 ATS) at New Orleans (48-31, 33-44-2 ATS)
The Mavericks and Hornets – stuck in a heated battle for third place in the Southwest Division as well as playoff positioning in the Western Conference – get together for the second time in 48 hours, with the scene shifting from Dallas to New Orleans Arena.
The Mavericks built a large lead against New Orleans through three quarters Friday night, then survived a furious Hornets comeback to win 100-92 and cover as a seven-point home favorite. Dallas finished its three-game homestand a perfect 3-0 SU and ATS, and it has won five of its last six overall (4-2 ATS), averaging 113 points per game during this stretch.
New Orleans is stumbling to the finish line, losing two in a row, four out of five and six out of 10, going 1-3 at home during this span. In addition, the Hornets have been a disaster at the betting window of late, going 1-4 ATS in their last five and 5-10 ATS in their last 15 (3-5 ATS at home). Normally the team’s strength, defense has been costing New Orleans lately, as it is allowing 102.7 ppg in the last seven outings.
With Friday’s victory, Dallas snapped a four-game losing skid (1-3 ATS) to the Hornets that stretched to last year’s first-round Western Conference playoff series. The home team has won 10 of the last 12 battles (9-3 ATS), with the Hornets winning the last six clashes in New Orleans (5-1 ATS). Additionally, the favorite is 19-7-1 ATS in the last 27 battles between these division rivals.
Despite covering against the Hornets on Friday, the Mavericks are still only 2-6 ATS in their last eight against Southwest Division foes, but they’re on ATS runs of 4-1 against the Western Conference and 7-3 as a ‘dog of less than five points. New Orleans carries nothing but negative pointspread trends, including 1-4 overall, 0-4 against the Western Conference, 1-6 when laying points, 1-7 as a favorite of less than five points, 1-4 when playing on one day of rest and 4-12 after a SU defeat.
The under is 5-1 in the last six series meetings between these squads. Additionally, Dallas is on “under” streaks of 5-1 on the road, 11-1 as an underdog, 5-1 versus winning teams, 12-5 in divisional contests and 19-7 when playing on Sunday. Finally, the Hornets are on “under” runs of 13-3 overall, 7-1 at home, 10-3 as a favorite, 10-2 when playing on one day of rest, 9-3 against Western Conference opponents and 17-5-1 versus division rivals.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
Boston (60-19, 41-38 ATS) at Cleveland (64-15, 47-32 ATS)
The surging Celtics look to become just the second visitor this season to win at Quicken Loans Arena when they face the Cavaliers for the final time in the regular season.
Boston has won six in a row and 10 of its last 11, including Friday’s 105-98 victory over the Heat as a six-point home favorite. The Celtics have followed up a 1-10 ATS slump by cashing in seven of their last 10, and they’ve won three of their last four on the road (4-0 ATS), the only blemish being an 84-82 setback at Orlando as a 3½-point underdog. Boston’s offense has kicked into gear over the last two weeks, scoring 103 points or more in five straight games, averaging 105.8 ppg on 50.4 percent shooting.
Cleveland, which is 38-1 at home this year, ran its winning streak to three in a row with Friday’s 102-92 victory at Philadelphia as a 6½-point road chalk. The Cavaliers are 25-4 SU in their last 29 games and they’ve held 12 of their last 14 opponents to 96 points or fewer. On the downside, LeBron James and his crew remain in a 7-12 ATS slump (3-7 ATS at home), and it has cashed in consecutive contests just once during this 19-game span.
This rivalry has belonged to the home team over the last two-plus years, with the host winning 15 clashes in a row, including last year’s seven-game Eastern Conference semifinal playoff series. However, the Cavaliers are 11-3 ATS in the last 14 battles, including four consecutive spread-covers at Quicken Loans Arena. In the most recent meeting March 6, the Celtics cruised 105-94 as a 1½-point home chalk after Cleveland won and covered the first two battles this season.
Boston has failed to cover in five of its last seven Sunday contests and four of its last five against the Central Division. Aside from that, though, the Celtics are on pointspread streaks of 4-0 on the highway, 5-0 against winning teams, 38-16 as an underdog, 41-16 as a road pup, 10-1 as an underdog of 5 to 10½ points and 5-0 when playing on one day of rest.
In addition to its 3-7 ATS funk at home, Cleveland is on pointspread slides of 4-9 after a SU win, 1-5 against the Eastern Conference and 1-6 after a spread-cover, but the Cavs have cashed in 21 of their last 26 against the Atlantic Division.
For Cleveland, the “under” is on runs of 39-19-1 at home, 13-3-1 as a home chalk, 6-2-1 as a favorite regardless of venue, 38-14-1 on Sunday, 24-10-1 when playing after one day off and 17-8 against the Eastern Conference. Meanwhile, the Celtics have topped the total in four straight games overall, but otherwise they’re on “under” stretches of 20-9 on the road and 13-4 as a road ‘dog.
ATS ADVANTAGE: CLEVELAND and UNDER
NATIONAL LEAGUE
Chicago Cubs (3-2) at Milwaukee (2-3)
Jeff Suppan (0-1, 13.50 ERA) looks to bounce back from a horrible 2009 debut when he leads the Brewers against the Cubs and Ryan Dempster (0-0, 3.00) in the finale of a three-game series between division rivals at Miller Park.
After losing Friday’s series opener in the bottom of the ninth inning, the Cubs got two runs in the top of the ninth Saturday to rally for a 6-5 victory. Both Chicago and Milwaukee have alternated wins and losses in their first five games.
Chicago is on runs of 24-11 on the road, 18-6 as a road chalk, 8-3 on Sunday and 4-0 when Dempster starts on Sunday. The Brewers are on hot streaks of 8-3 at home, 7-2 against the N.L. Central and 22-8 when Suppan starts against division rivals.
Dempster was solid in his first start of the season, holding the Astros to two runs on six hits and three walks in six innings, but Chicago fell 3-2 in 10 innings on the road. The Cubs have lost five of Dempster’s last seven starts (playoffs included), even though he’s yielded three earned runs or fewer in six of those contests. Furthermore, Dempster has allowed four earned runs or fewer in 18 straight starts since the beginning of last July.
Suppan lasted just four innings in Tuesday’s season-opener at San Francisco, allowing six runs (all earned) on six hits and a walk, losing 10-6. Going back to the start of September, Suppan has a 9.84 ERA in seven starts, with Milwaukee going 1-6. Last year at home, the veteran right-hander was 3-3 with a 4.36 ERA in 13 starts.
Dempster went 4-0 with a 2.40 ERA in five starts against the Brewers last season, including 1-0 with a 1.50 ERA in two outings at Miller Park. For his career, he’s 8-2 with a 2.45 ERA in 35 appearances (13 starts) versus Milwaukee. Suppan is 6-6 with a 3.60 ERA in 19 career starts against Chicago, including 1-1 with a 6.60 ERA in three games last season.
The over is 11-4-2 in the last 17 meetings between these rivals and 13-4-2 in the last 19 battles at Miller Park. Otherwise, though, the under is on streaks of 4-2 for Chicago overall, 5-2 for Chicago on the road, 10-2 for Chicago as a road favorite, 6-0 for Chicago on Sunday, 5-2 for Chicago when Dempster starts, 7-3 for Milwaukee overall, 4-1 for Milwaukee at home and 5-2-1 for Milwaukee on Sunday.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
AMERICAN LEAGUE
Boston (2-3) at L.A. Angels (2-3)
After hanging on for a victory over the Angels on Saturday, the Red Sox will hand the ball to ace Josh Beckett (1-0, 1.29 ERA) in the rubber match of a three-game series at Angel Stadium. Los Angeles is set to counter with Dustin Moseley (0-0, 4.50).
Jason Bay socked two home runs, Mike Lowell contributed a solo shot and closer Jonathan Papelbon survived a shaky ninth inning as Boston prevailed 5-4 on Saturday to end a three-game slide. Additionally, the Red Sox snapped a nine-game regular-season losing streak to the Angels, winning for the first time in five tries in Anaheim.
Boston is 12-3 in its last 15 games against the A.L. West, but just 2-5 in its last seven against right-handed starting pitchers and 3-8 in its last 11 as a favorite. The Angels are on sterling runs of 24-12 against the A.L. East, 7-1 as an underdog, 5-0 as a home pup and 5-0 on Sunday.
With Beckett on the mound, the Red Sox are on runs of 22-10 on the road and 20-7 as a road chalk, but they’re just 2-5 in his last seven outings overall, 2-5 in his last seven starts on Sunday, 1-4 in his last five against the A.L. West and 1-4 in his last five outings versus the Angels. Meanwhile, L.A. is 4-1 the last five times Moseley has taken the mound as a home underdog.
Beckett was dominant in his season debut Tuesday, holding the Rays to one run on two hits and three walks while striking out 10 over seven innings en route to a 5-3 home victory. However, Beckett struggled on the road last year, going just 5-5 with a 5.65 ERA (compared with 7-5 with a 2.85 ERA at home),
Moseley allowed just three runs on nine hits in his debut Tuesday against the A’s, but got a no-decision as Los Angeles lost 6-4 at home. It marked the first time since April 9, 2008 – a stretch of nine starts – that Moseley lasted at least six innings, but he has given up three earned runs or fewer in six of his last seven outings, including the last four in a row. The right-hander was 4-0 despite a bloated 5.65 ERA in 19 home appearances (four starts) in 2008.
Beckett went 0-2 with a 7.36 ERA in three starts against the Angels last season, including one playoff outing. Prior to that, the veteran right-hander had gone 2-0 with a 1.59 ERA in his first five career starts against the Halos, with Boston winning four of those contests. Meanwhile, Moseley’s one start against Boston came in August 2007, and he got roughed up, allowing six runs (all earned) on 10 hits in 4 2/3 innings of a 9-6 loss.
For Boston, the “under” is on streaks of 6-0-1 on Sunday, 4-0-1 against right-handed starters, 11-5-1 as a favorite, 6-1-1 with Beckett on the mound and 4-1 with Beckett working on the road. The under is also 36-17-5 in the Angels’ last 58 Sunday games, but the over is 6-2 in Moseley’s last eight home starts.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
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